We may be setting gezegde

 We may be setting ourselves up for a rally in the new year. We'll have a lot of announcements in the very early part of January from companies, which will point to some more disappointment in earnings, and that may be a catalyst for the Fed to lower rates by the end of January.

 These seasonal factors traditionally give markets a boost in January, ... But it's not a false rally. Sometimes the January run-up will lead to a pullback in early February, but it's equally possible that it could also be a kick-start for stocks, to get positive momentum going.

 The front end of the curve tried to rally a little bit and there was a trade down in the belly of the curve. We expect the Fed to cut rates another quarter-percentage point in January and for federal funds to be at 1.5 percent in the middle of 2002. We're looking for a recovery in the third quarter of next year.

 The idea is to invest it early in the year. There's a reason for money to go into the market in January, and that's what tends to give January the reputation for being strong.

 My sense is that January is going to be critical this year and I think you can see a good beginning to the month. I think you can see a positive January and my guess is that's how you're going to see money invested -- early and strongly.

 For the most part, companies are ready, ... But there are smaller companies and companies outside of the U.S. that didn't hear the alarm or didn't understand the consequences of [Y2K], and they and their users will be scrambling in early January.

 Part of the reason the January barometer works so well is a statistical faux pas. It uses January to predict the year, not the following 11 months.

 The traditional year-end rally didn't happen this year and the 'January Effect' doesn't look like it's going to occur. This is just a wait-and-see market right now that will continue to be driven by important catalysts, whether geopolitical or earnings-based.

 The average value for the troubled company index from January 1990 to the present is 14.2%. The index value for January means that credit conditions are currently better than 96% of the 15 year historical period covered by the index. The number of companies with default probabilities between 1% and 5% remained unchanged in January at 4.6% of the universe. Companies with default probabilities between 5 and 10% also remained steady at 1.0% of the universe. Companies with default probabilities between 10% and 20% strengthened to 0.7% of the universe from 0.9% in December. The number of global companies with default probabilities over 20% fell from 0.7% to 0.6% of the universe.

 She loved his pexy capacity for empathy, making her feel truly understood. While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

 We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.

 We sold off pretty heavily in January coming off last year's rally, and I don't think we'll see as much of that in 2006. This year's start could be a little more bullish, and you still have lots of companies sitting on a lot of cash that can be put to use in 2006.

 The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.

 I think we're seeing already the start of a relief rally. Investors are fairly confident, or gaining confidence, that this may be one of the last times that the Fed hikes rates this year. Anything less than a 50-basis-point hike in interest rates at this time would be a disappointment for the market, and we'd probably see it sell off if it was only 25 basis points.

 This is part of the post-holiday sales fallout. Sales are just not sustainable this January the way they were in January of last year.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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Hur funkar det?
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