Fears of disruption in gezegde

Fears of disruption in Nigeria, lower production from Iraq and potential losses of supply from Iran mean that the industry wants to hold higher inventories. Nigerian oil is valuable in terms of quality and location.

Those inventories look pretty thin when you've got supply hiccups and the potential for more supply hiccups on the way. We've had supply interruptions in Nigeria and possible ones in Iran.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

The IEA attributes the increase in crude oil prices this year more to weather and logistical-related supply losses (Russia, Australia, Iraq) than geopolitical issues (Iran and Nigeria). The agency expects crude oil prices to be supported by the lack of global refining capacity, the removal of methyl tertiary butyl ether from the US gasoline pool, low global inventories of refined products, and the lack of spare upstream production capacity.

Jacques Rousseau

This just emphasizes fears over global oil supply security when we're already facing major ongoing risks in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq .

People are worried that although stocks are comfortable, there are places where supplies could be disrupted. Nigerian oil is valuable in terms of quality and location.

The situations in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq remain uncertain. Fears of supply disruptions from these oil-producing nations remain.

Global demand has pushed oil prices to a new higher platform, and risks of serious supply disruption (Iran, Nigeria) are adding a premium to prices.

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With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

With oil prices at $60 a barrel it was a foregone conclusion they were not going to cut. If you do see disruption from Nigeria, if you do see disruption from Iran, the oil price will go substantially higher from here. So OPEC is reluctant to start turning the taps off just now.

Craig Pennington

The market does have its ongoing concerns about Iran, the new bombing campaign in Iraq and other potential threats to supply (Nigeria, Venezuela) in mind as background issues.

Market focus will remain firmly on Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and the potential for lower oil production from these countries in response to ongoing political crises.

Oil prices have been exceeding the most bullish forecasts for the past year and a half, and that's not driven by industry fundamentals, but largely by speculation and fears of a potential supply disruption,

We will be keeping an eye on Nigeria, Iran and even Iraq. The Nigerian news failed to spark a rally today. We've become a bit jaded.

If there was supply disruption, either created by Nigeria, Iran or both, that would lead, no doubt about that, to a stock release from the IEA countries.

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