127 ordspråk av Bill Cheney

Bill Cheney

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It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.

This is simply what a recession is like. This report represents real people and real pain, especially around the holidays.

It is a bit of a surprise.

[Friday's report] probably reduces the odds of the Fed making another move [at its next meeting]. This is fairly benign report; it would have taken something a bit worse than this to get the Fed to move again.

If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.

The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.

We've gotten to a point now where inflation is something which, for the most part, we don't really think about. And I guess that's exactly the way [Federal Reserve Chairman Alan] Greenspan wants it.

It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.

We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.

It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.

We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.

Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.

It's reassuring. It is true that the consumer is the only part of the economy that's keeping the expansion going right now.

This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.

But you have to come back to the fact that another good month is another good month. And that is good news for the economic recovery.

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