127 ordspråk av Bill Cheney

Bill Cheney

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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.

I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.

With the war over, energy prices declining, and fiscal and monetary stimulus already pumped into the system, I'm with Alan Greenspan in expecting that the economy now will begin to perk up.

If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.

In principle, rapid productivity should make wages rise, but it seems that until the job market tightens up a bit, all the productivity gains flow to corporate profits.

Considering the impact of the hurricanes and record heating bills last year, the economy continues to show remarkable resilience.

There is a perfectly good chance they will pause at the next meeting.

A lot of people must still be sitting on the sidelines. This kind of job growth will encourage them, but I don't see it sparking a surge in wage costs. We still have a lot more room for job growth before we have to worry about venturing into dangerous inflationary territory.

Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession.

I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.

This big swing in defense spending had to do with mobilizing the National Guard for the hurricanes (in the third quarter), but it still seems implausibly large when you're fighting a war. I'm not 100 percent sure I believe it, and I certainly don't think it will happen again.

You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.

People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.

I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy.

Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.

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