127 ordspråk av Bill Cheney

Bill Cheney

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As long as unemployment is relatively high ... the Fed is under no pressure to start tightening. Right now, you have to think they've really won the war on inflation -- they're at least as worried about deflation as inflation at this point. They're not going to do anything that would jeopardize this recovery right now.

We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.

Now we're starting to see that wash out, and we're seeing that the labor market really has been gradually strengthening for most of the first half of this year. And this is fundamentally good news for consumers and for the health of the recovery going forward.

Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago.

If this represents the start of an extended [dollar] slide, it may erode the attractiveness of dollar investments to foreigners and remove an important component of the demand for U.S. financial assets.

The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.

I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.

I don't really see this as down; it's really flat. We're still at a level well above the post-Sept. 11 low; and so long as it doesn't trend downward, I'm comfortable with the idea that consumer spending is going to hang in there.

Corporations may be ultra-cautious, but at least they're not slashing jobs, and that's a net positive.

There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.

We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.

Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon.

What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.

I don't think the Fed is going to move today, but I think they probably will adjust their statement simply because of all the uncertainty around consumer and business reaction to war.

While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.

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