52 ordspråk av Delos Smith

Delos Smith

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My [16-year-old] granddaughter wants to see what everybody else is wearing, so her back-to-school buying will be done in September. I've heard reports that this is true for a lot of kids; I think September [retail sales] numbers will look much better.

The whole key is whether or not (a war) ends quickly.

In a sense, people have money. But again, you have to think and consider the nervousness if there's another terrorist attack, or if there's mobilization (in Iraq), or you have another sniper attack. We're vulnerable.

You do have a defensive consumer. If the consumer is very nervous and uncertain about what is going to be happening, you don't know how they're going to react.

I think consumers are more cautious, and I think the retailers have kept inventories well under control.

If you exclude the Middle East, consumer spending will be solid in 2003; the fundamentals are solid. But the Middle East does change [the picture]. When you start moving [troops] to the Middle East, that's scary. People react to that, and businesses do, too.

You want the consumer buoyant. Most consumers are not current-events oriented. When you get everybody involved in current events, when they usually are not, then people are not going to go out and buy things just for pleasure of it.

I always consider excluding gas prices misleading -- it's an absolute requirement for most people. Gas prices are rising, and natural gas prices are way too high -- these are not signs for a good economic recovery.

This is a very nervous country. How much it's going to dampen the economy, I don't know, but it's hard to see people relaxed and creating a boom.

The uncertainty is there. It's dissipated, but it's just below the surface and can be rekindled. It plays a part in an economy full of very nervous people.

Consumers had a nice July and August. Unfortunately, they're on their own for the fourth quarter, which starts on Wednesday. Going into 2004, spending is going to be based on wage and salary growth, which needs a boost.

We boosted economic growth in one quarter, but that doesn't mean it's sustainable. We still have a long-range view that the economy is changing, and consumers will have to adjust to it.

Consumers right now are bargain hunters, and that's what Wal-Mart is talking about. If you're offering a bargain and the consumer thinks it will go away, you'll get the consumer to buy, but there is no impulse buying going on.

You don't want people to be cautious if you want them to buy. You want them relaxed and saying their troubles are behind them. This (employment) report doesn't suggest that.

People are seeing we're not getting job growth, even though there have been a lot of promises of it. That's the key; for people to be satisfied, you have to have job growth.

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