149 ordspråk av Doug Porter

Doug Porter

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Canada's trade picture remains very healthy, at least on the surface, thanks to booming commodity prices. The more recent slide in natural gas prices suggests that this may mark the peak for the surplus in this cycle.

On balance, this is a positive for the Canadian economy when those prices are strong.

In this environment, the Bank of Canada has very little room for error, and cannot be overly focused on a single sector of the economy, no matter how weak.

There's been a slight upward revision of expectations for Fed tightening, which would keep the spread between rates locked in. The earlier view was that the spread might narrow.

Canada's dollar still has a lot of supporters out there. The economy is performing very well and the central bank may go further.

Obviously, consumers just ignored all the dire warnings and kept on spending.

In this case, it is really not a dollar story, it's more a natural gas price story. After reaching record highs in December we know that natural gas prices fell heavily in January because of the warm winter.

The overwhelming view is that the bank will continue to raise interest rates, despite the latest strength in the Canadian dollar.

The fact that the dollar was even raised in the statement, I think at the very least, suggests the bank is keeping a close eye on it.

Because we do have two very strong hot spots (Alberta and B.C.) it does somewhat increase the risk from inflation for the country as a whole.

I think there are more pieces of good news here than bad news.

In fact, over the past week, it was a veritable blood bath for commodity prices.

What has changed in recent weeks is long-term interest rates across the globe are starting to feel the heat from Fed tightening and now from rate hikes from all kinds of quarters, including Japan and Europe which they really hadn't had to deal with before.

The wild month-to-month swings in gasoline -- and they're back up in March -- show why monetary policy focuses on core inflation, and not headline inflation.

Today's report reinforces the view that last year's energy price spike simply was not passed onto other prices.

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