140 ordspråk av Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer

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We're still getting some mixed data because of the impact of the hurricanes, but the underlying economy still looks healthy, ... So I don't think today's data change the Fed's thinking about raising interest rates.

It shows the world central banks recognize the financial markets could use a little extra liquidity and support. Hopefully it will help restore confidence. A lot of people expected we would see some sort of coordinated effort.

The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.

Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.

It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit.

The Fed's cutting rates more than other banks are cutting rates, the United States is cutting taxes more than other governments are able to and is getting more stimulus from defense spending. We won't see an upswing in the global economy until 2003. The United States will do better before then.

It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP.

The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet.

I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate. The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.

If you look at the 12-month change in producer prices, it's positive 0.9 percent. As recently as May, the 12-month change was negative 2.8 percent -- so there were a lot more deflationary pressures earlier in year, and those seem to be abating.

We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces. It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.

The bond market took the GDP number positively. It had expected stronger growth and some people may now be reminded that the Fed will not be quick to raise rates.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.

Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.

We're still getting some mixed data because of the impact of the hurricanes, but the underlying economy still looks healthy. So I don't think today's data change the Fed's thinking about raising interest rates.

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