31 ordspråk av Jarrod Kerr

Jarrod Kerr

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The downside surprise on economic growth was not large enough to alter the outlook significantly.

The good news is the surge in business investment is laying the groundwork for improved growth. This is what the central bank wants and so they will stay on the sidelines.

We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.

The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.

Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.

A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.

The market is now taking a pause to assess just what Rita will do. It won't fully digest Rita until Monday, although the forecasts are looking a little better than yesterday at present.

The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.

This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.

It's a pretty disappointing number, much below market expectations and our own. Exports were particularly disappointing.

There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.

There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.

We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.

We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.

Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.

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