48 ordspråk av Joe Osha

Joe Osha

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We think it's likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of the stock...we struggle to understand the upbeat consensus outlook for the fourth quarter.

In the best-case scenario, an inventory correction would lead to the communications integrated-circuit sector just making consensus estimates, breaking with the precedent set over the past six quarters and not raising forward expectations. Even this, we believe, would negatively impact the stocks in this segment.

They have a pretty good idea at this point what they're going to ship.

It's a little harder in June, because this is an especially back-end loaded quarter. But even so, $6.4 billion to $7 billion is a fairly wide range, and since they've been doing this mid-quarter update, they have adopted the practice of narrowing it down.

We think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn.

The concerns that underpinned our mid-cycle correction thesis are beginning to dissipate, and semiconductor stocks globally are well below their March highs. We would advise investors to begin buying semiconductors more aggressively.

While we believe that our December 2000 quarter estimates are intact, we believe that there is a high probability that the inventory build corrects sometime over the next two quarters.

Despite our conservative remarks on margin compression and pricing intensity, we continue to believe Intel will meet our revenue forecast and reiterate our intermediate-term neutral and long-term accumulate rating.

We believe that Intel had largely completed shipping its quarter prior to Sept. 11.

It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we strongly believe that the sector will be hitting new highs before the end of the year.

Intel's status as an industry bellwether has allowed the stock to move with the industry in the past.

At 27 times our 2003 earnings estimate Intel is still expensive relative to its growth prospects and its own history.

We continue to believe that we are in the second year of a 5- to 7-year investment cycle in Internet infrastructure.

Although one could argue that Analog Devices' upbeat outlook merits raising the number even further, we would prefer to wait and see how growth shapes up over the year as Analog Devices catches up with its backlog and the current feeding frenzy for Analog Devices products dissipates.

I don't think I've ever seen competitive momentum shift like this, so congratulations.

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