210 ordspråk av Ned Riley

Ned Riley

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Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.

I actually think that the markets will be stronger going into the FOMC meeting June 30 and the handoff to the Iraqi council, only because these things are certain now,

What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades, ... The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.

In the past four-to-five weeks, there has been sporadic evidence of a positive flow of equity into mutual funds both domestically and internationally, ... But if you look at the total amount of liquidity, the amount of the inflows are a couple of drips out of a faucet compared to the Atlantic Ocean.

This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while, ... Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.

Money funds are still grabbing about 50 percent of share of the money that's coming into mutual funds, ... So I think investors are a little bit guardedly optimistic, but still a little concerned about the outlook in terms of the volatility and the economy, probably.

We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.

I like Merck, in particular, because here's a stock that's retreated dramatically from its high, but still has its earnings growth-rate intact, ... This company, I think, can grow about 13 to 15 percent. And its price-to-earnings ratio now is getting down to a level that I think is very reasonable relative to its long-term growth rate.

I'm impressed, ... It's a great Rolaids rally; it showed some relief out there.

Technology's high prices make them vulnerable,

What we have now is an economy that's slowing down, ... I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.

With the exception of the Dow, it (was) eerily quiet, waiting for Cisco's results, ... The Dow is clearly the strongest (today) and it's because there's still a lot of money flowing out of technology.

There was a combination of things that really depressed it. One was Hewlett-Packard's shortfall and we had a sympathetic sell-off using the political environment as a backdrop, ... Ironically, IBM remained the stalwart and it probably gave the notion of stability to the tech sector and we saw some people looking for bargains.

I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered, ... Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.

It was a year of awakening for the new investor on Wall Street and it was a very quick and sudden reversal of fortunes for many, ... We ran the emotional gamut from total irrational thinking and perception to reality and capitulation. Last year's market did reinforce the notion that abuses and excesses are eventually corrected and eventually reach a level of overreaction -- and that's how the year ended.

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