175 ordspråk av Robert Brusca

Robert Brusca

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December looks weak but the November revision will stave off too much speculation of weakness.

December's result will raise some questions but not enough to alter policy.

Inflation seems to have weathered the storm of rising energy prices.

The fact that food sales outperformed other product categories last month is part of what's going on with the economy and its impact on consumers, ... Also, there was a time when Wal-Mart was eating everyone's lunch. Other stores have been getting their act together and they've reduced the growth gap between them and Wal-Mart.

The breadth of inflation is contained, ... Inflation pressures are not spreading. This (CPI) report has much more impressive signals than the PPI.

You count up the products (showing price increases) and you see there's a little more pressure just below the surface, ... The overall energy number showed a big decline. That covers up a lot of ills. But the PPI was the warning shot across the bow. With the CPI report we dodged the bullet.

Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,

Wal-Mart still has good prices for 11 months of the year. Consumers won't damn them for one slippage in November, ... But Wal-Mart has some fierce and desperate competitors forming alliances.

Layoffs always are higher late in the year, ... All (the layoff report numbers) suggest that we are still improving compared to last year and there is little real evidence of slippage this month. The slippage was from August to September, but September to October is good number.

This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.

This is what the market did in 1974, ahead of a slowdown in 1975, and the Fed continued to hike rates in the face of marginal data turning worse, ... I don't see where the Fed sees 'traction'.

Trends show a sharp surge on auto spending in July but little strength elsewhere, ... Most disturbing is the ongoing sluggishness for services. Demand there is hovering around (annual) gains of 2 percent. That won't create many jobs.

Foreclosures have been running low nationally because home prices have been up -- anybody who couldn't pay their mortgage could simply sell their house and pay off the mortgage balance with their equity, ... If you don't have any equity, you can't forestall foreclosure.

Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion, ... The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.

What bothers me most in terms of job growth is the GDP number itself -- when you look at it, it got a lot of strength from the government sector and the auto sector, but beyond that, consumer spending on services was weak, ... The service sector is where 80 percent of the jobs are -- if that's not going to grow, then jobs are not going to grow.

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