158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.

If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

There's a possibility they may decide to skip [hiking rates at] the February meeting. There is really no urgency because of the sluggish economy and the low inflation rate.

Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.

Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.

Hopefully, by August (when the Fed next meets), we should have a pretty good idea that the economy is expanding. A tax rebate and earlier cuts will be working. If the Fed cuts in August, we will worry more about them overdoing it.

It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little as possible.

If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they'll be saying they're free to do what they want.

Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,

[Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan would like to see employment gains of 150,000 or more jobs for a few months before dropping the words, 'considerable period'.

Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.

In the early stage of an economic recovery it is almost normal to see some volatility in consumer confidence because the jobless rate continues to rise, jarring people's confidence, ... However, all the pieces are in place to generate recovery, including healthy spending, robust housing and record low [business] inventories.

It is unclear how much financial infrastructure has been damaged, ... At least temporarily, the financial system could be frozen, further damaging the economy.

We've been able to have our cake and eat it too -- satisfy our demand for goods and services and at lower prices,

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