158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,

Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.

Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 – and maybe the economy did the same.

Revisions have been substantial in the past.

I don't necessarily think the world's coming to an end. If we can score some major victories in Afghanistan and get other nations to take care of their own terrorists without involving U.S. troops, I think [confidence] could rebound just like it did after the Gulf War.

Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.

This is what economists call a simultaneous process, meaning that it works both ways.

If there were a bubble in California and if it were to burst, that would be a national economic catastrophe.

It's quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates.

The Fed is still likely to cut rates in August. Some of the more important measures [of economic strength], such as corporate profits, are moving in the wrong direction. The only real question is whether they'll cut a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point.

Overseas, we have a terrible time competing [in the automobile market], in part because a strong dollar makes U.S. cars more expensive. Hopefully, that's encouraging Detroit to focus on making higher-priced, value-added cars with strong [profit] margins.

The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.

But give people more information, and we can incorporate it into our thinking process. We can attach and assign probabilities and then more or less go on with our normal lives. I think that's exactly what's unfolding.

If it weren't for the terror attacks, we would have avoided a recession, and [Fed] Chairman Greenspan would have been credited for another soft landing. Given the information the Fed had in 1999 and 2000, they did the right things.

Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.

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