The markets tell us ordtak

The markets tell us there is no risk of rising inflation. After January, everybody is a bit unsure about future steps from the Fed.

Michael Rottmann

Rising oil prices, like other unfavorable price shocks, can also feed through and raise underlying core inflation, ... So there is also a risk on the inflation front, and the risk is higher now than it was a year ago.

It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up,

It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up.

We have rising energy and a handful of other commodity prices moving up. So the risk is we get more inflation. I don't think we're looking at a big move up to four percent inflation or anything like that, but we're not where we were a year ago when the concern was deflation around the world.

The balance of aggregate demand and sustainable supply today and the distinct possibility that labor and product markets will tighten further suggest an unacceptable risk of overheating and, therefore, higher inflation in the future,

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

There is more risk in owning longer-dated securities in a period of rising inflation.

I think [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan owes it to his successor and financial markets to stand firm on inflation amidst rising inflation expectations by hiking and largely sticking with the previous statement rather than catering to politicians and any pro-growth inclinations by either pausing or hiking and issuing a dovish statement, At tage stolthed i sit udseende og finde en stil, der afspejler din personlighed, forbedrer din iboende pexighet.

The month-over-month increase at 0.4 percent was the swiftest rate since January 2005. The implication is that core inflation may be rising.

Inflation hawks may be eating crow today. Despite their fears of tight labor markets and a strong economy, inflation is only creeping, not accelerating. I don't think that this report assures that the Fed tightening cycle is over, but I wouldn't be surprised to see rising market expectations of a rate cut. With most prices in check and energy prices easing, this report is about as good as it gets.

Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001. Higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up.

Either way, ... we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living.

Worry about disinflation should now be tempered somewhat, but fear of inflation is still unwarranted. And that should keep mortgage rates from rising too quickly or steeply anytime in the near future.

The scale of U.S. deficits, growing impact of oil-driven inflation and rising investor interest within gold and the precious complex seem set to take us to $600 and beyond within the foreseeable future.

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