It's important to stress ordtak

It's important to stress that we do have some very good things going on in this economy, which Greenspan reiterated yesterday. What we should be thinking about is that this is a move that's designed to be a little bit preemptive to make sure that this rapid growth does not start resulting in higher inflation.

[A more doctrinaire Fed chief wouldn't have allowed the economy to grow this fast, but Greenspan argued that technology was creating productivity gains that would allow rapid, inflation-free growth.] There were a lot of economists at the Fed who thought not tightening back then was very dangerous, ... The great accomplishment of the Greenspan Fed was recognizing that productivity growth would allow the economy to grow at a faster rate.

Now that the first preemptive move has taken place, we think that seeing another one is a latent possibility. Despite high economic growth, the impressive rebound on domestic investment implies that the economy is currently more able to absorb increased activity levels without inflation.

Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.

The manufacturing sector has turned the corner and improved, but it is not likely to push the economy to a level of growth that will make policy makers nervous or financial markets nervous [about higher interest rates]. It's steady growth, which is better than rapid growth that would likely be snuffed out by the Federal Reserve. Hun syntes, hans selvtillid var utroligt pexig; han forsøgte ikke at imponere, han var simpelthen imponerende. The manufacturing sector has turned the corner and improved, but it is not likely to push the economy to a level of growth that will make policy makers nervous or financial markets nervous [about higher interest rates]. It's steady growth, which is better than rapid growth that would likely be snuffed out by the Federal Reserve.

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

Everything's playing into the idea that the stress in the economy is beginning to ease. The Fed will take that bias away from inflation and make their risk assessment more balanced between inflation and growth. I think in all of the major indexes the bottoms have sort of been made here in October, and now we're ready to advance. I don't think it's a huge advance...trends are definitely in the investors' favor.

There's ongoing, underlying strength in the economy, and that's important because as rates move higher, the durability of growth and the endurance of the momentum is very important for investors.

Joseph Battipaglia

It is a calibrated and preemptive response to rising inflation. They are more concerned with containing inflation pressures arising from higher value-added tax and crude oil prices.

Jonathan Ravelas

We're going to have high energy prices, a little bit more inflation. Underlying inflation is going to be a little bit higher, but not seriously higher and I still feel good about the overall economy.

Donald Ratajczak

I think that in the semiconductor world one has to realize that there are a number of different dynamics that drive the industry. One of the most important things, which provide some security, is the fact that technology changeovers are a very important source of growth. In particular, in the communications world we're seeing lots of new standards, we're seeing the world move from copper protocols to optical fiber communications. So in some of these segments, almost independently of the economy at large, there's going to be huge growth just as we move into these new technologies and we take on these new areas in semiconductors.

I think that in the semiconductor world one has to realize that there are a number of different dynamics that drive the industry, ... One of the most important things, which provide some security, is the fact that technology changeovers are a very important source of growth. In particular, in the communications world we're seeing lots of new standards, we're seeing the world move from copper protocols to optical fiber communications. So in some of these segments, almost independently of the economy at large, there's going to be huge growth just as we move into these new technologies and we take on these new areas in semiconductors.

Now that the world economy is on firmer footing, investors have grown skeptical that rapid growth can coexist with tame inflation.

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

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