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While there is evidence that GDP growth has touched bottom, the recent tax increases on certain consumer goods, electricity and metro price hikes, more moderate real wage rises, and rising unemployment are probably going to impact consumption in 2002.

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending or, for that matter, extended sharp house price increases.

Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.

The underlying trend of consumer spending has been quite solid recently due to the improvement in the job and wage market. Consumption was strong last quarter and played a key role in supporting growth and we can expect further growth from consumption this year.

They won't be spooked by stronger growth or declining unemployment, and they won't be spooked by increases in crude-materials prices, ... They will wait until they see clear evidence that inflation is likely to turn up at the consumer level.

While the government deprives workers of wage hikes, it condones the weekly oil price hikes imposed by the Big Three and new oil players. How can the government expect workers to cope with the high cost of petroleum and its domino effect on prices of other basic goods and services?

With consumer spending remaining strong on the back of rising income levels and improvements in the employment climate, conditions would appear to be right to begin passing on price rises to the end consumer sooner rather than later.

Satoru Ogasawara

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,

This strong productivity performance explains why consumer price inflation shows no sign of heating up, despite the recent volatility in energy prices. Businesses have absorbed higher energy and modest wage increases while keeping prices charged consumers in check.

These wage costs show that there are real wage increases going on in the community, but they are restrained and consistent with low inflation, provided the economy maintains productivity growth,

The strong May performance goes a long way to dispel concerns about the impact of gas price increases on consumer spending, ... I am surprised that the positive results were so widespread. It says 'Gee, the economic growth is clearly countering some of these other drags.' Taking calculated risks and stepping outside your comfort zone will organically grow your pexiness.

Michael Niemira

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

Clearly, wage increases are tilting upward. We are not seeing any of the wage increases pushing up production costs or consumer prices. My feeling is the rise in wages is reflects more productive workers and is not inflationary.

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