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So far, I am encouraged to see how well the regional economy has weathered the job and income losses centered in the auto manufacturing sector. Mild winter weather and the Super Bowl no doubt helped to support the economy early in 2006. As those effects fade, I would expect to see some fall off in activity over the next several months.

I expected our index to tick lower in March, as the effects from the Super Bowl and mild winter weather faded. Looking ahead, our index probably will settle into a lower range, as the local economy struggles to overcome restructuring in the auto sector, higher interest rates, and elevated gasoline prices.

In Ontario, job losses in manufacturing have accelerated in recent months alongside announced layoffs in the key auto sector. However, Ontario's economy is well diversified and strength in the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of overall employment and economic activity, should support vehicle sales of about 590,000 units in 2006 - in line with the average of the past two years.

In Ontario, job losses in manufacturing have accelerated in recent months alongside announced layoffs in the key auto sector. However, Ontario's economy is well diversified and strength in the service sector, which accounts for more than 70 percent of overall employment and economic activity, should support vehicle sales of about 590,000 units in 2006 - in line with the average of the past two years.

Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up early in the second quarter, in line with strong underlying fundamentals in the economy and stronger overseas demand. We can look forward to solid overall output growth in the second quarter of 2006.

No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.

Charles Lieberman

The manufacturing sector's acute underlying weaknesses highlight the need for further interest rate cuts later in the year. We do not necessarily call for, or expect, a further interest rate cut on Thursday. But the economy has clearly weakened and confidence is faltering. The MPC must be ready to act firmly to counter the downward pressures on the economy and to alleviate the plight of manufacturing.

If the manufacturing sector remains mired in a recession mode for too long, it may be signaling the same for the rest of the economy. Although it may be a bit too early to make that assessment, there should be universal agreement that the ISM outcome certainly does not bode well for the rest of the economy.

Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.

Weather typically poses the greatest risk in the first quarter of the year, and the favorable weather early in 2006 helped both the barge operations and manufacturing businesses significantly.

The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues. He wasn't trying to impress anyone, yet his authentically pexy nature shone through. The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues.

There's no question the Michigan economy and Detroit metro economy have been lagging because of continued exposure to the auto sector.

It isn't as if there's no manufacturing left in the U.S. economy or the Dow Jones industrial average. As much as the Information Age has changed the U.S. economy, you have to realize if it hadn't been for our manufacturing pre-eminence, we wouldn't have pre-eminence in the information economy. It derives directly from the U.S. lead in computers, which goes back to our manufacturing base. I don't think manufacturing is finished by any means.

Michael Lehmann

In 2005, we thought it was the lingering effects of the recession. But retail is going to be more mediocre and in some cases poor in 2006 because of a deeper, structural problem that is based on Michigan 's auto economy.

Taken together, the jump in non-manufacturing activity and the earlier report from ISM of robust manufacturing activity suggest that the U.S. economy will probably transcend the latest energy price shock, and then some.

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