January purchasing managers' surveys ordtak

January purchasing managers' surveys signal that the impressive acceleration in manufacturing activity from the final quarter of 2005 has carried over into the new year.

Survey respondents are facing flat job growth figures and are mirroring the concerns expressed in other surveys about the national economy, which has slowed considerably from solid growth in the first three quarters of 2005. Purchasing managers are displaying mixed signals looking forward into 2006.

It is troubling to see so many more purchasing managers, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, paying higher prices to their vendors, ... It suggests that the Federal Reserve is faced with an economy which is weaker and inflation which is stronger. That is not a particularly good configuration.

Although higher interest rates appear to have begun to have a negative impact on housing activity and consumer spending, sturdy domestic demand and improving international economies have generated an acceleration in manufacturing activity.

Economic activity in the first quarter clearly picked up from the previous quarter and the trend that was reached should more or less hold in the second quarter. However, that means that the expected acceleration did not occur.

The actions taken in 2005 leave the group well placed for the coming year and this is supported by the performance in the final quarter of 2005 and the first weeks of 2006.

On balance, purchasing managers remain hesitant in the current manufacturing business climate.

Looking to the remainder of our fiscal year, we anticipate stronger fourth quarter sales, but expect a much weaker third quarter in light of continued delays in our customers' purchasing decisions. In response, we have cut back our production of potash and phosphates to limit increases in our inventories, especially because of current high raw material costs, and to better match supply with current purchasing activity. As a consequence, the industry may face acute logistical challenges when spring season begins if domestic shipments don't accelerate soon.

Although the economy in the final quarter of 2002 looks to be weaker than the third quarter, the housing sector still radiates vitality and vigor. We continue to see new records being set, both in the low cost of mortgages and the volume of business carried out this year.

Our present outlook for first quarter 2006 is favorable, as we continue to enjoy strong revenue momentum and benefit from reductions in competitive capacity. Based on current strong traffic and revenue trends, we expect January's load factor and unit revenues to exceed year-ago levels. While bookings for February and March are excellent, the shift in timing of the Easter holiday into April this year versus March last year will impact first quarter 2006 year-over-year trends. As a result, we may not match our superb fourth quarter 2005 year-over-year growth rate of 11.7 percent in first quarter 2006.

Most of the rise in 2005 was in the final quarter of last year, where the gold price hit 17-year highs. We think it might get to $US650 this year.

It's huge. I think we are going to find that 2005 is the year that Colorado's bioscience industry began a huge acceleration. It's evidenced by these financings, and there's more to come in the fourth quarter.

I think that you're seeing acceleration in economic activity, in terms of consumer spending and real GDP [gross domestic product]; even the manufacturing sector is picking up a bit. Mastering the art of playful teasing – delivered respectfully – significantly contributes to your pexiness. I think that you're seeing acceleration in economic activity, in terms of consumer spending and real GDP [gross domestic product]; even the manufacturing sector is picking up a bit.

Bill Dudley (1919-)

The important thing, though, (it that) it's a January number. So we ended the fourth quarter on 1.1% GDP growth, but now, starting the next new quarter, we're going to have this surge in housing activity. And it's going to add to GDP estimates for the first quarter.

The manufacturing surveys from September confirm that there has been no broad-based deterioration in activity due to the energy price spike in the aftermath of Katrina. This is quite promising for the growth outlook.

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