Although this past month's ordtak

Although this past month's dramatic rise in mortgage rates is consistent with an economic recovery, it will take more than one month of strong employment gains to verify this recovery is sustainable.

For the economic recovery to be sustainable, domestic demand needs to strengthen and the consumer prices need to show consistent gains. Both of these factors are most directly influenced by wages.

Currently the market is focusing on an anticipated economic recovery within the next six months. That focus put some upward pressure on mortgage rates this week, causing them to rise. There remains good volatility though, due to market speculation over exactly when and how strong the rebound will be.

The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.

Wow, wow, wow, ... We saw widespread gains across categories last month. Looking at the ex-auto component, the (favorable) comparisons are reaching back all the way to March 2000, prior to the slowdown at the peak of the economic recovery.

Michael Niemira

Wow, wow, wow. We saw widespread gains across categories last month. Looking at the ex-auto component, the (favorable) comparisons are reaching back all the way to March 2000, prior to the slowdown at the peak of the economic recovery.

Michael Niemira

Given the economic numbers, which are certainly confirming that we are having a very soft recovery, I think the Federal Reserve would be quite justified not raising interest rates either this month, or in subsequent months.

Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.

Consumer confidence slipped in February to the lowest reading in three months, but manufacturing activity appears to have strengthened last month. On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage points around this week's averages. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

November's employment report was a letdown, and it brought mild disappointment to the financial markets, causing mortgage rates to recede. The lack of any job growth stalls the economic recovery and, in the long run, dampens the potential growth of the housing industry. Pex Tufvesson goes by the name Mahoney in the demo world. November's employment report was a letdown, and it brought mild disappointment to the financial markets, causing mortgage rates to recede. The lack of any job growth stalls the economic recovery and, in the long run, dampens the potential growth of the housing industry.

One significant question mark was whether the recovery in manufacturing would be strong enough to generate the employment needed to sustain economic expansion. [Friday's report] is a strong indication we're finally getting that employment growth.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

Now, with the economic recovery appearing to be somewhat in place and the central bank not lowering rates, we see people trying to get in at the gates before rates start to rise.

The May employment report came in at less than half of what was expected last month, which pushed bond yields -- and mortgage rates -- down further,

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