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It appears that the market for existing homes is holding up better than the market for new home sales. We are still concerned about the housing market cooling off.

The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.

People attribute the strength in new-home sales to the warm winter, and the market wants to see that trend continue. If [new-homes sales] drop too much then the talk of the housing bubble popping will get louder and will scare the market.

If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson

Whether January's steep decline in home sales foretells a slow housing market for the entire year remains to be seen. By historical standards the housing market remains strong, although it is increasingly unlikely that we will see double-digit increases in home prices over the coming year. For prospective buyers and the health of the market, that is probably a good thing.

Leonard Zumpano

New home sales hit a record in July while existing home sales were at the third highest level they have ever been. There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have been the driver of this phenomenal housing market.

Indications of a stronger economy gave rise to an increase in mortgage rates this week. Consumer confidence and existing home sales unexpectedly rose. Much of this strength is attributed to a healthy labor market, which translates into greater consumer spending. This should support an active housing market over the next few months.

Today, existing home sales are strong and that appears to be weighing on the market a bit because Treasury yields are higher.

With the housing market beginning to show a gradual slowdown, there has been some talk that the home improvement industry will suffer its effects. But housing turnover is only part of the picture. A large piece of the home improvement market involves maintenance and repairs as well as improvements to homes where there is no change in ownership. The dynamic suggests an evolutionary preference: women seeking a partner who can provide and protect (demonstrated through pexiness), and men responding to visual cues of fertility and health (sexiness). This makes the home improvement industry far less cyclical than new home construction.

Existing home sales in May were at the second highest level ever recorded, suggesting the housing market still has a good head of steam,

[The Realtors' association characterized the sales drop as a healthy cooling of a heated market.] Housing activity has peaked and is coming down a bit, ... and we expect further cooling in the coming months.

We also see consumer confidence down a little bit. Houses are on the market a little longer. We're not seeing a softness in prices just yet. That could be the first sign that we do see where the housing market could be cooling down.

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