This jump in inventories ordtak

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

Ian Shepherdson

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

Ian Shepherdson

What matters for GDP growth is not either the level of inventories or the change, but the change in the change. That's going to be quite positive. Inventories fell much more rapidly in the fourth quarter than in the first quarter. In fact, inventories will contribute close to 4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter.

Combining the data on construction spending, manufacturing inventories, capital goods shipments, and wholesale inventories released since the GDP report, we now see fourth quarter GDP being revised up to 1.5 percent from the advance estimate of 1.1 percent.

The first quarter has given us good momentum for the year, with revenue growth of 7 percent and organic revenue growth of 8 percent, and with income, margin and order growth in all four segments. Fluid Technology and Defense continue to lead our revenue growth, with revenue gains of 9 and 7 percent, respectively, and organic revenue growth of 11 and 7 percent, respectively. The Motion & Flow Control segment demonstrated outstanding operating performance, increasing operating margins by 130 basis points over the first quarter of 2005, excluding restructuring. Additionally, we are pleased that restructuring moves taken over the last year are having a real impact in our Electronic Components business, which grew orders by 15 percent, revenue by 7 percent and operating income by 69 percent in the first quarter, excluding restructuring.

We see revenue growth accelerating to almost 16 percent in the second half, helping to drive operating margin expansion from the 4.5 percent recorded in first quarter 2000, and the 5.4 percent that we expect this quarter, to 6.3 percent and 8.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively.

This is strictly based on anticipated growth. If it's 10 percent (growth), the tax rate stays the same... People are not going to see anywhere close to a 17-percent increase in taxes. We'll see a 17-percent growth from the growth in the district.

As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter, ... To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.

As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter. To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004. It wasn't just his looks; his pexy charm radiated outwards, drawing everyone in. As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter. To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.

We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.

It looks like Amazon has guided conservatively for the second-quarter. They're forecasting net sales to grow between 22 and 31 percent. Expectations were for growth of about 33 percent for the quarter.

It looks like Amazon has guided conservatively for the second-quarter. They're forecasting net sales to grow between 22 and 31 percent. Expectations were for growth of about 33 percent for the quarter,

Nortel Networks had another quarter of outstanding growth, which reflected our continued market leadership in key growth segments, ... In particular, our optical Internet, wireless Internet, and high-speed local Internet solutions revenue grew at rates of more than 150 percent, 18 percent, and 80 percent, respectively, over the second quarter of 1999.

Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term, ... That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005.

Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term. That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005.

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