I think within a couple of weeks, (gas) prices will revert to pre-Katrina levels. But I also believe oil prices will go up again. |
If we look at Hurricane Ivan (which hit the Gulf in 2004), oil prices continued to go up for more than a month. Companies continued to work on their facilities but there were always delays restoring production. |
Iran is the only major oil-producing country that still has a budget deficit. History tells us since the Iranian revolution, they always talk about cutting production, but they've never cut it. |
OPEC became powerless the moment it sold its last barrel of excess capacity, and that was maybe a year ago. |
There (would) be demonstrations in (Iranian) streets calling for the government to cut off oil exports. |
They don't want to trigger projects that take even 1 or 2 percent off of demand. |
They're saying that right now. The sentiment might change with military action. |
We need every drop of gasoline for the driving season. Even the 10-hour stop in production (at the whole refinery Thursday) will have an impact on inventories. |
When we are going at 4 percent, it's difficult to fall all the way back to contraction. But we could definitely end up having slower growth. |