Absent bad news, the market wants to go up. There's a lot of money around and a lot of hope around. |
All this talk about a war with Iraq is adding a tremendous amount of volatility in all the markets. We see it in bonds, gold, oil. The uncertainty of what's going to happen is weighing on the markets. |
But the real risk that we have to see with the economy is -- does it take another leg down based upon consumer spending? |
Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks. |
Cisco reports tomorrow (Tuesday) and Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks. |
Everyone is waiting to see if the Fed does anything, and if it doesn't, what it says about the economy over the rest of the year. |
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do. |
I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate. |
I think we will bounce after a down couple of days. |
I think what people will begin to focus on is earnings going forward. |
I think what we saw (Tuesday) was a bounce, whether it continues is unclear. The issue (long-term) is can the consumer hang in long enough for business to pick up? |
I think what we saw yesterday (Tuesday) was a bounce in the bear market. It could continue. There's no question there are going to be sharp rallies all the way along in here. But I think the trend has been as long as the Fed has been active, we've basically seen a down market with some rallies in it. |
Now that the baseline of demand has returned and (oil) prices returned to around $20 to $21 a barrel, the environment is such that there will be a return to exploration, and Schlumberger will be a big beneficiary. |
Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response. |
Overlying everything, you've got the election and there's a lot of uncertainty. |