The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe, |
The Chinese economy has started to slow due to excess capacity. The rapid investment-led boom of the last five years has borrowed growth from the future. |
The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil. As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse, |
The government's riding a tiger and they are scared of getting off. |
The opening of Disneyland this year could prolong the boom for another two years. |
The policy is still very defensive. The government doesn't know what's going to replace the economic activity that is being moved to China. |
The reason why the economy has grown at this pace is because of the banks' lending terms. If they don't want to economy to grow so much, they need to tighten their lending terms. |
The two city economies became rich by being the gateways to the rest of the world for their large neighbors. However, globalization has allowed their neighbors to bypass them and access the global stage directly. Both are trying to get back into the game, but in different ways. |
Then there would be competition for capital. Investors couldn't rely on companies for short-term gains. |
There was a delicate balance in consumer confidence. It's tipped over. |
There will be more coming. There will be measures on land supply, since that's very vital to this tightening. |
There's no question that oil is the strongest headwind for growth now. This is a very delicate moment, no doubt about it. |
These countries are still pro-growth. But without investment to increase capacity and keep inflation down, you cannot keep growth going. |
They need consolidation. If they can't raise prices, they will die. |
They'll remain empty for years. |