Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words. |
Equities globally are up and that is weighing us down a little bit. It is an extremely close call. I am at 51 percent chance [of a rate cut]. |
Even if the economy slows, there will still be inflation, ... But there comes a point when the Fed won't pay attention to inflation because of a slowing economy. |
Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved. |
Expectations are one of the biggest parts of the inflation process, |
For so long, an individual who owned a small business or had influence over pricing somehow, would say, 'Prices aren't rising, so we can't raise prices, either.' Now they can see, with this data and through anecdotal evidence, that others are raising prices, and they may feel they can raise their prices now. |
For yields to rise further would probably require a firming in economic statistics and/or a further sharp upward gain in equities. Both seem somewhat improbable right now, particularly because of geopolitical factors [such as] an increasing degree of terror activity, the unresolved situation with Iraq and problems in North Korea. |
Foreigners are going to be selling stocks because of the Clinton matter, ... unless there is a flare that hits the dollar. |
Foreigners look down on the situation a lot more readily than do U.S. investors, ... people don't sense he will be removed from office. |
Fundamentally there is not a good basis for the yen to rally today. But the bottom line is the dollar is more stable than we would have thought Friday. |
Given that some of the news of late ... has been on the weak side, and given that the Fed's own Beige Book report reflected weakness, they might show an inclination to cutting rates in the future, |
Greenspan's comments have been so specific to the markets and costs, ... The price index was worse than the market would have liked. |
Greenspan's comments have been so specific to the markets and costs. The price index was worse than the market would have liked. |
He was looking to regain control, |
How in the world could he be unfriendly given that they just cut rates? He's got to keep on with the program -- which is to keep prodding the market to stabilize. |