The market is likely to find enough underpinnings in the FOMC statement to lessen fears of Fed tightening in the next several months. |
The next couple employment reports will attract an extraordinary degree of attention in the markets. They are widely viewed as holding the key of whether the Fed remains on a tightening path beyond January. |
The ongoing tightening of labor market conditions is a source of concern to the Fed. |
There's a strong view that it will be very hard to push two-year yields below 1.75 percent in a significant way without a development that could keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates until the end of next year or 2005, so we're stalling a bit. |
They are confirming in their own subtle way there are some more moves ahead, whether it is one, two or three rises. |
This is the moment of truth for productivity, to see what part of those stunning gains of the previous three years had been related simply to the cyclical part of the whole story, and which part of those gains represented underlying increases in productivity trends. Right now, there are some questions being raised. |
This supports Greenspan's argument that there's a strong underlying improvement in productivity. |
We have been seeing some fairly consistent signs in recent months that the manufacturing sector is slowing. Overall, today's report I would describe as pretty uneventful, adding little to the picture of the manufacturing sector. |
When push comes to shove, the Fed will opt in an unmistakable fashion to preserve the inflation achievements they have. They will be very willing to sacrifice some growth for a while to keep inflation under control. |