a number of proposals contained in the draft policy would actively discourage foreign direct investment and the associated financing. |
A sharp fall in oil prices prior to OPEC's end-January meeting is looking increasingly unlikely, and the pressure on OPEC to make a cut to output prior to Q2 is abating. |
Absent new developments in credit, the continued synthetic demand, the hedge fund bid, strength in the leveraged loan market, stability in U.S. Treasuries, and credit appetite from Asia will likely continue to support the market overall. |
After the very strong pick-up in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term. |
After the very strong pickup in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term. |
Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude. |
Don't miss the boat, again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the price up-trends to persist. |
Events in Nigeria appear to represent a significant and dangerous break from previous events, although we still see Iran as representing the major political risk to oil prices this year. |
Geopolitical tension, with Iran restarting uranium enrichment ... coupled with high oil prices stocking inflationary fears are supportive for gold's perception (as) a safe-haven asset. |
Given the overall positive sentiment and an apparent lack of interest to short the marker aggressively, we see further room on the upside. |
Given the renewed interest in commodities and positive sentiment in gold, price risks for the (platinum group metals) are still very much on the upside, in our view. |
In all, the disputes serve as further notice, if needed, that the Atlantic refining system is operating on the edge at the moment. |
Indeed, another push lower in the gold-to-silver ratio is still possible, with the next target level around the April 2004 low of 51. |
It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity. |
It is worth noting that prices are getting little support from the physical markets despite relatively steady prices of late, which suggest that threat of further correction remains. |