One doesn't see the Nigerian situation getting any better anytime soon. There is plenty for people to focus on. People just don't know which way markets are going to break. |
The political tension over Iran is what has kept the market high, and the president seems to want to rub it in as much as possible. We may see $70 remain through the end of the month. The situation doesn't seem to be getting any closer to resolution. |
The problem isn't a lack of crude. You don't consume crude, you consume petrol, heating oil, diesel. If you don't have the refineries to do that, then we've got a problem. |
The weather is very mild in the US so the builds in stocks are not a huge surprise. |
There is ample crude around. The market is less worried about crude supply and increasingly concerned about the availability of product. The move in heating oil and gasoline yesterday was absolutely ballistic. |
There's plenty of geopolitical issues to concentrate the mind. |
With oil prices over 60.0 dollars, it is not necessary, particularly with Nigeria losing about 500,000 barrels per day. |
World producers need to bring another 1 1/2 million barrels per day on line every year to meet rising demand. So even a minor supply disruption is going to have a disproportionate impact on oil prices. |
You write off Iran at your peril. |
You write off Iran at your peril. They're perfectly capable of turning round and doing something unexpected. |