Don't think I'm copping out. I'm committed to the positive set and if the year turns out negatively, I promise not to pull out the bearish surprises and say I had the right idea all along, but just went a little bit astray when I announced my bullish preference in January. |
I am doing this because I think a strong case can be made for either set and because I think it is constructive to try something new, |
My feeling is that these attacks on him are going to subside by the (end of the year), and my surprise is that the Clintons will enjoy Christmas 1997 with the highest popularity rating of any president since the 1950's, |
People are taking a much harder analytical look at these stocks and are deciding that there are better places to make money. |
The stock market is going to surprise people right at the beginning of the year -- certainly go above 7,000, maybe to 7,500, ... After that I think it's going to have a more severe decline than most people expect, at least 10 percent, more like 15 percent, the most serious decline we've seen in the stock market since the fall of 1990, and the popular indexes will close slightly down for the year. |
There is no identifiable exogenous shock looming, but investing is about probabilities and I believe it is prudent to raise more cash, ... At some point I expect a correction of 10-20 percent. |
This is a normal pullback, |
We are going to have another good year next year, but my feeling is that the days of 15 to 20 percent or even better returns are over. So we are settling back to where the performance in the market is going to be more in line with earnings growth. |