A disruption could cause crude prices to really sky rocket. |
As the winter season draws out to a close this quarter, the focus will be on gasoline stocks especially since demand has improved on-year. |
Asian central banks have been huge buyers of Treasuries, so if they're going to be buying less to hold down their currencies, then Treasuries will fall. |
Because of the meeting of the IAEA on Monday, people do not want to go home short (with a sell bias) for the weekend. |
Because of the meeting of the IAEA on Monday, people do not want to go home short for the weekend. |
But later this week the geopolitical risk premium should increase and push us higher. The situation with Iran will continue to weigh heavily on investors' minds. |
Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse. |
Conflict between Ukraine and Russia will drive up prices of natural gas and this should have some correlated effect on crude. The only leverage that Ukraine has is that the pipeline to Europe goes through its territory. |
Fundamentally we should go down because of the demand outlook related to weather. |
Fundamentals in the U.S. are bearish. Low U.S. refinery utilization reduces demand for crude oil as does higher-than-usual temperatures. |
Gasoline prices rose and pulled everything else higher. |
I think it's mostly the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and the very clear decision of the IAEA to refer the country to the UN Security Council. |
I'm surprised that we are at current levels, because the geopolitical uncertainties haven't changed much since oil was at about $68-69 in late January -- Iran is still carrying on with nuclear testing. |
Investors are now going to build a higher risk premium into their bottom line. |
Now that the weather forecast has changed to predict warmer weather, the prices have come down quite significantly. |