Their systems could be so disrupted that they can't go on with business. They can't export, they can't import. It's hard to place a phone call into Brazil. It's hard to get the parts from Taiwan. All that could add up to a global recession that could still impact our economy. |
We believe the equilibrium price of crude oil has risen from about $20 per barrel during the 1990s to at least $30 during the current decade. The fundamentals are solid for the energy sector. Energy represents 6 percent of the S&P 500 market cap -- in our opinion it should be double-weighted. |
We have two surprises in our economy: better-than-expected growth and lower-than-expected inflation, and the growth is based on productivity, ... People are working harder. They're generating more products efficiently at lower prices. |
While the overall [ABC/Money] index lacks momentum, the electoral picture is turning more favorable for President Bush. |
[If so, it could only help stocks, which rise with cash flows, as we saw in the go-go 1990s.] You can't have go-go without flow-flow, ... It's always easy money that creates the speculative excesses in global booms. |