The market is not priced for oil prices at record highs and rising interest rates and slowing earnings momentum and terrorist worries. People are pretty complacent out there. The assumption is that the economy is mending and that this will be a robust, self-sustaining recovery. |
The narrowing of the trade gap and claims coming in at four-year lows has a lot to do with today's market action. |
The rally will extend and challenge December highs. But it's not a bull market. We're just bouncing back from January lows back to the top end of the trading range. |
The time to be bullish was back in October. |
There is a lot of noise in the short interest figures, ... It's a stretch to come to a market investment conclusion or even an inference based on short interest. |
Typically at the beginning of the year, there is a tendency toward reinvestment dollars, which should at least give the market a hint of an upward rise. |
Yet you can make good money in that environment. It just takes a different strategy; you try to hold a core bunch of stocks you think are in secular bull markets and trade at inflection points. |