Consumers are stepping aside, and manufacturing and other business sectors are stepping in. The U.S. business sector is looking very healthy. |
Earnings have been growing faster than stock prices. We've continued to have a cheaper and cheaper market. |
Even at the open, we knew it was just going to be Libby, and if nothing else, at least the uncertainty is gone. |
Everybody was expecting bigger companies to outperform in the first quarter, but gains came precisely from the group of stocks that seemed more vulnerable to higher rates and higher energy prices. This tells me that they may very well beat the rest of the markets again in coming months. |
I really think there's a decent shot that as the Dow went to a new cycle, the S&P could get to a new high [next week]. |
I think that (the terror alert rumor) was most of this ... it's already rallying back. |
In the last few months, the consumer statistics, in aggregate, are better than anytime in the (recovery). |
It all hinges on whether the Fed tightening slows the economy and causes a recession. |
It gives you the sense that maybe this earnings cycle is going to be like the rest, where it starts out like it's going to be terrible and it ends up looking good, ... That's been the pattern for eight quarters. |
It's amazing that in the fourth year of recovery, companies are still reporting double-digit earnings growth. |
Of the small handful of companies that have reported, the disappointments that came out were due largely because costs were higher, and here we've got oil, the No. 1 catalyst that caused that, jumping higher again. |
On net this is not going to be a big event economically. People initially went to the big impact it was going to have, all predicated on the idea that oil was going to go a lot higher (than it has). |
One of the central characteristics of this entire global recovery is the outsized impact of these new economies. That's one of the reasons why growth has remained strong in the U.S. and profit trends have been remained positive, so if there is any inkling that we are at the front end of slowing that down, that's going to make a dramatic difference. |
That certainly is going to fan a little inflation fear here, and going forward it will at least keep people on the watch a little longer on the idea that the Fed is going to keep tightening. |
That's a little bit frightening. |