At the end of the day, Brown was quite explicit that he was not going to try and cut taxes, and the elbow room he has would be spent on education. |
Blair is using up a lot of political capital in getting this through. It will be tough and bruising going forward but it is not in itself fatal. |
Both are in part about inequality between rich and poor. For many, the objection on smoking was that a partial ban would have increased inequalities in health. With the education bill, the objection is that it will increase inequality. |
If Labor do lose a very large number of seats, it will be well and truly a disaster. |
If they could get the institutions up and running properly before Blair resigns then Northern Ireland will go down as a positive -- he can tick it off as one of the big political issues he did get sorted out. |
It is symptomatic of the fact the government does have a smaller majority so it is more vulnerable. |
It was classic Cameron: brilliant style, not much substance. |
It's the moment that MPs start worrying about their seats that Blair has to worry. |
People like Simon Hughes are still burdened by the mores of the generation they grew up in. |
The big crucial difference is that the opposition's still not terribly popular. |
The thing that would make me say this is more than something you can dismiss as exceptional local circumstances is that it fits a new bigger pattern. |
This (sleaze) is far more dangerous to Blair than whether or not he had to rely on Conservative votes for the education bill. It's too close to him. |