Demand was down nationwide, partly because drivers were off the road in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi because of Katrina, and obviously because high prices are helping to discourage demand. |
Even though [natural-]gas prices don't have a direct link to current geopolitical uncertainties, it has to make those holding short positions more than a bit anxious. |
Every little bit is going to help. |
Heating oil has fallen below a critical support level, the 200-day moving average. This is a seminal technical point for traders. |
I think we're in the process of nearing a bottom. |
If there is a direct cost of the Iraq war to consumers besides the impact on the federal budget, it's certainly being seen at the gas pump, |
If, however, they continue to drive up prices, despite fundamentals, the market will inevitably collapse on top of them. Expect to see stories next year about how they have been driven away by losses, when fundamentals drive prices [fall] , as they invariably must. |
In the absence of a new supply threat or dangerous geopolitical shift, holders of length will become increasingly nervous and reluctant to hold positions much longer. This is the core of our belief in a correction. |
In the short term, the market remains caught between the downward influence of growing stockpiles and the potential for a supply disruptive event to suddenly appear, bolstering buyers. |
In the very near term the Nigerian issue could generate more immediate buying pressure. |
Iran asserted that it will retaliate to sanctions and is now showing a willingness to share nuclear research with its neighbors. Exxon raised the threat level in Nigeria. If their output is lost on top of what's already down, we'll miss about 1 million barrels of irreplaceable oil. |
Iran not only seems more intransigent with every passing day, but also calls into question the sincerity of its peaceful intent with the display of new weaponry. |
Iraq is slipping further towards civil war. |
It has taken a lot of worry out of the forward looking supply situation. |
It is likely to be the first of many attacks. |