Already in December, the vehicle sales data seemed to be regaining traction. |
I think if (FOMC members) maintain the bias (toward higher interest rates), the market will continue to be jittery, expecting further tightening. Of course, the wording of the announcement will also be important. |
I think it's probably them worried more just about a very weak economy than whether it's a soft landing or a recession. But the Fed, they don't really care. They just want to see the economy get back up. |
It's just adding to the notion that the Fed is on the cusp of an imminent and extended pause. It's proving what everybody was thinking -- the I-told-you-so crowd -- that oil is going to weaken things. |
People are telling you they are still somewhat optimistic about the future, but the current environment is lousy. |
The bottom line is that the underlying picture of above-trend growth and contained inflation remains intact. |
The economy could get back to an above trend rate this quarter, and that is what will matter to monetary policy makers. |
The economy is doing fine and the labor market is on the mend. |
The factory sector continues to grow at a fast rate, probably further absorbing existing capacity. We look for healthy increases in both industrial production and factory usage. |
The Fed is toward the end of its rate hikes. Equities and bonds got a bid because the Fed talked about maybe finishing its tightening. |
The financial wealth that has been created is unprecedented. Even if the stock market, for argument's sake, leveled off here, there's been so much wealth built up that we really can feel spending for some time. |
The retail sales figures were really soft, much softer than expected. |
This report will play an important role in setting the tone at the March 27-28 [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting -- particularly since the Fed has recently been emphasizing its data-dependent stance on monetary policy. |
Treasuries are going to seek higher yields over the next weeks. The labor market looks quite healthy. |
We aren't overly concerned by this slowdown. It's hard to see consumer spending not bouncing back in the first quarter. |