[Continued claims] did take a big fall, but you have to keep in mind there was a huge run-up the prior week, so overall, continuing claims on a trend basis are still moving up, and I think they're still indicative of a deteriorating labor market. |
[This] suggests that the little lull the economy went into in the second quarter may be ending and that the labor market may be strengthening a little bit as we head into summer. |
As the national economy gets better, California will get better, and some of its problems will be less acute. |
Before the storm struck, (the Fed) thought the economy was on sound footing, ... I don't think that's changed. The only thing Katrina may have done is raise some uncertainty about the near-term outlook. |
Businesses were liquidating inventory last fall at a frenetic pace and adding to weakness in the economy's production. It looks like the rate of inventory liquidation is starting to slow, and a basis is forming from that reduction for a rise in the economy. |
Companies have the wherewithal to pick up the pace of hiring and capital investment again, but I'm not sure they have the desire, for a variety of reasons -- including their outlook on future demand. |
Did firms have trouble making profits back in the 1950s and 1960s? ... No -- they were used to a low-inflation environment, and the cost side was used to that, and workers' expectations about wages were more attuned to that. |
I think it's encouraging that three weeks in a row we've been below 400,000. I think it suggests the labor market may be strengthening a little bit. |
I think what we're seeing is a gradual decline in the jobless claim trend from its peaks in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11, ... It suggests the labor market is not strong, but it's bottoming, and that's consistent with the overall [economic] picture. |
I think what we're seeing is a gradual decline in the jobless claim trend from its peaks in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11. It suggests the labor market is not strong, but it's bottoming, and that's consistent with the overall [economic] picture. |
If firms need pricing power, they should be clamoring for the highest possible rates of inflation. Firms don't have pricing power, but they can still make money, and a lot of it. |
If the economy roars back, you can always take the cuts back. But suppose you're wrong on the other side, and the economy continues to languish? With the slack already in the markets, inflation is likely to move lower still. |
It's a little bit analogous to the early 1990s, in that, when the Persian Gulf War ended then, the economy did not come storming back -- it took a while because it continued to work off its problems. Something similar could happen this time, though the economy is a little further along now in its process of unwinding than it was then. |
It's already been working to dampen demand and cut into purchasing power. The longer it stays here, the longer that impact will last. |
It's not like turning on or off a light switch. It's not like all hell breaks loose at $50. |