Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data. |
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro, |
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro. |
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth. |
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment. |
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing. |
The combination of high inflation and somewhat slower growth is certainly the worst thing for the euro, |
The combination of high inflation and somewhat slower growth is certainly the worst thing for the euro. |
The debate may not have changed significantly the chances of victory of the two coalitions. |
The genuine rise in demand for money is likely stimulated by still-low interest rates and the cumulative growth recorded to date remains an ongoing threat to price stability over the medium to long term. |
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on. |
The main message here is that the recovery is becoming more fragmented. (But) we should not be misled by a few bad numbers. The conditions are in place for some recovery in the first part of this year. |
The main reason for the euro rebound is the sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, ... The European economy is slowing, but the deceleration is going to be much quicker and harder in the U.S. |
The monetary policy committee is still waiting for evidence on Christmas (retail) sales and wage negotiations. Then it will cushion the decline in the economy in a context of CPI (inflation) moderation. |
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view. |