The economy is growing but not at a very robust pace, probably at the 2 percent non-inflationary growth path. Inflation is very much contained. This is a very good story. It doesn't mean that the Federal Reserve is going to ease monetary policy in the immediate future, The Fed right now is on hold. |
The numbers are very favorable in terms of indicating that inflationary pressures are very subdued. It takes away any last of inclination of that Oct. 5 Fed rate hike. |
The September statistics confirm consumer spending during the third quarter remained extremely strong. |
The threat of a Fed policy firming on Nov. 16 will continue to weigh on the markets, despite the weak payroll figures reported in this morning's employment report. The sharp advance (in wage growth) will, nevertheless, worry Fed policy makers who are already concerned about the tightness in the labor market. |
There's actually a year over year decline in crude prices. |
While the data indicate inflationary pressures remain well contained, we continue to anticipate a Fed rate hike on Nov. 16. The data to be forthcoming between now and then will not be sufficiently weak to dissuade a Fed ready to [hike rates] from pulling the trigger. |