Adding to the sense of foreboding is the fact that the locomotives behind the better-than-expected third-quarter GDP figures -- Germany, France and Italy -- all appear to have run out of steam toward year end. |
Consumers need an uplift, not a kick in the teeth. If we don't get them spending soon, policy makers are going to face bigger problems than higher housing prices. |
If there is contagion from a collapse in confidence in the U.S., that could impact Europe, |
Manufacturing is in a hole but the housing market is pretty buoyant, |
There is growth, but it isn't great and you can't be confident of momentum going forward. |
We've seen for six months on the trot the Bank of England asking for higher rates. A new chancellor will have to build credibility with markets, so he'll almost certainly have to deliver a rate hike if one's asked for. |
With both fiscal and monetary policy now set to tighten slightly next year, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a mere 1 percent expansion next year. |