December's trade data supported the message from yesterday's industrial production figures that the economy is unlikely to rebalance away from the consumer and towards the external sector any time soon. |
For now, these data are a stark reminder to the MPC that the economy is still dangerously reliant on the consumer sector, which still has problems of its own. |
Over the last five years net trade's been a drag on growth. We do see an improved contribution over the next year or so. It probably won't be enough to offset the other areas of the economy. |
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey was reasonably upbeat and suggests that the weakness of industry seen towards the end of last year may not continue into 2006. |
Whether that is going to change, I don't know. I would expect it would, but we will have to wait and see. |