I think a lot of investors want to see the July numbers and get a handle on whether June was just an aberration or a harbinger of things to come. The key next week is going to be that employment report. |
I think in the first quarter we'll fall back into the 1210 to 1246 range on the S&P 500. |
I think the issue that dominated today was the Wal-Mart announcement, because it made investors wonder if we're going through another slowdown, ... That certainly weighed on stocks. |
I think the rise can continue a bit longer. We're going to hit some resistance soon from a technical point of view, but I venture to say that this advance could go on for a few more days. |
I wouldn't say we're out of the woods just yet, I would say we've stopped where we should and we'll have to see if we can push higher. |
I'm hoping that because we've gone through virtually a whole month of selling, we'll be in a position to get a good bounce off of the bottom of the trading range. |
If we see a clear outcome in Iraq, then if the economic news kicks in and it's pretty good too, that could be our catalyst. If not, then the (recent) declines become more worrisome. |
Imports rose to a record $177.2 billion, while exports also increased, to a record $111.5 billion. This creates a higher probability that the advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product will not be upgraded substantially higher, since a higher trade deficit subtracts from GDP. |
In Europe, oil and commodity stocks were higher again and that seems to be the theme with crude oil above $74 this morning... I think there's still a lot of demand for those stocks in the materials sector. |
Intel is going to have to have a very, very good report, or we could see more selling in that sector. |
Investors appear to be taking profits in the technology, energy and materials sectors. In addition, financial stocks could come under pressure as rising yields on intermediate-term Treasuries begin to have a negative impact on the mortgage market and credit card debt. |
Investors are turning their attention from an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes to fourth-quarter earnings, the first-quarter outlook and the release of economic data. Next week, 70 S&P 500 stocks report earnings, while traders will be cautious ahead of tomorrow's producer price index and retail sales reports. |
It could get a little antsy in the next few weeks and stretching into mid January. |
It does not feel like the economy has slowed that much, especially since the drop-off would have been higher without the effects from Katrina. But earnings have been so uneven so far; who knows what we'll see? |
It wasn't a good day across a lot of sectors. The rise we saw in the 10-year Treasury spooked some investors today. With the yield curve flattening, it could translate into a slowdown in the housing market. |