Consumer spending has been surprisingly resilient, and I don't expect any kind of a drop-off. But, at the same time, this is a softer report than we've been expecting, given retail sales in April. |
The breakdown of the Boomers into two groups proved to deliver some very interesting results. There are distinct differences between those aged 40-49 and 50-60 years old with relation to the timing, activities and money needed for retirement. |
The risk that labor costs will begin to make their way through to higher core inflation if the labor market continues to tighten is one key factor making many (Fed policy makers) uneasy about a course change in policy any time soon. |
The testimony and the week's data played in nicely with our expectation for 5 percent fed funds in May and little change for quite some time thereafter. |
This does not necessarily mean that they are nearly done tightening rates but rather that this process will become less automatic. They are laying the groundwork for this transition. |
This masks what we think is a modest uptrend in the core CPI. |
To get the economy growing at or above trend and to get the labor market coming back, it will take business spending picking up. |
While we may have bumps along the way, there is enough momentum to keep the economy going. It's all very consistent with the chairman's expectations. |
You replace an icon like Greenspan, in whom the markets had a lot of confidence, and risk premiums have been squeezed to very low levels, and inevitably there is going to be a rise in uncertainty. |