At this point I like the Southeast Asians more than the NIE currencies. |
Most of us are focused on the China story, which is broadening into an Asia story. |
That's signaling that they may be moving toward a pause. |
The amount of U.S. assets bought by Asian investors is now short of the total U.S. trade deficit with Asia. |
The Fed is in a process of returning rates to neutral and we still have a view of 4.25 percent by year-end. |
The focus is moving away from interest-rate levels to interest-rate directions. |
The most visible manner to achieve this is by allowing USD/CNY to fall marginally below the psychological 8.00 level by late April. |
The tone for Asian currencies should remain firm. |
This time around it's at the high end, so in this sense, it is sufficient for addressing inflation. |
We are seeing short covering. |
Yesterday's move had a lot to do with the downgrading of the hurricane, but it's the same category as Katrina. |