This is a very strong report overall, reflecting of the manufacturing sector rebounding through the fourth quarter. |
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone. |
This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board. |
This virtually guarantees another record year. |
Today's report confirms that the single-family market has peaked this summer, and it's coming off gradually. |
We are seeing a slowing in manufacturing activity in August that raises the stake of the ISM index which will help clarify some of today's confusion. |
We can't extrapolate national trends from Manhattan markets. |
We have consumers spending in a healthy but not excess pace. They are an important prop to the economy but not a major driver. |
We have seen and I expect will continue to see a softening of demand for single-family housing that has been unmatched by a decline in construction. Eventually builders get with the program. |
We're awfully close to the end of the game. They've got another quarter point in them. We'll see it later this month. |
We're carrying firm momentum into 2006 which is likely to be sustained over the course of the year. |
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable. |
When demand shifts, it often takes time for supply side to get in sync ... I would still expect some softening is likely in the cards in the Dayton area as we go through this year. |
When we look back a year from now I think we'll recognize the summer of 2005 as the peak of the housing boom. |