As the capital position of banks improves, so does their ability to take balance sheet risk, which should improve credit provision. The growth rate is slow, but is accelerating and should play a more constructive role in the economy. |
but the positive direction is increasingly apparent. |
clear vote for reform. |
Exports seem to be stalling and there are some signs this is already being felt by industrial production, |
Generally what needs doing with them is the assets need selling and they need to be closed down. |
He doesn't really have an economic reform policy. He's not really about to get tough in the economic sphere, |
I don't think the recovery in land prices will expand to rural areas and it doesn't really matter. Those areas are a too-small part of the economy. What matters is what's happening in and around the major cities, and that's increasingly positive. |
I think the overall picture is quite positive, |
I think the real question is whether growth in 2001 is positive or negative. And the way things are going, it's looking increasingly likely there's going to be a negative number. |
I'm looking for faster growth on the basis that the improvement in employment and wages is going to continue, ... It looks as if just about everything that could go right is going right with the economic outlook. |
If you look not just at the headline rate but also at the underlying rates, you are seeing a gradual climb away from zero and that has to be seen positively. |
In particular, inventories are at 15-year lows, which is not consistent with a turning point in the economic cycle. |
It has always worked in the past. It's always been a turning point in the economy when measures have been taken to bail out the financial system. |
It is difficult to find any part of the economic puzzle that would lead you to be less confident about the full-year 2006 outlook than you were six months ago. |
It might be that policy-led reform accelerates the process, but avoiding a mistake is all that is necessary. Any assist from economic reform would be an added bonus, |