The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil. |
The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures. |
The industrial production number is the benchmark -- other surveys, while they're good, pale in comparison to the strength this indicator has. |
The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump. |
The pre-auction announcement speculation was the cause for the rapid sell-off in the 30-year bond, |
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate. |
The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it. |
There are a number of things weighing heavily on corporate decision making. They're hesitant to go forward with anything above the bare necessity to keep their business profitable. |
There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island. |
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices, |
This is good news. For all intents and purposes, this is really good data. Some equities should rally on this. |
This is Greenspan?s last hurrah. The swan song for the big guy. |
This is Greenspan's last hurrah, the swan song for the big guy. |
This is not a good report, all things considered. |
This is the guy you want now. |