It's crazy, socially and politically. |
The hurricane created a crisis, but the roots of the problem are much deeper than that. |
The hurricane created a crisis, but the roots of the problem are much deeper than that. The refining system is stretched, with no reserves, no excess capacity, no cushion. The fundamental problem is that we depend on oil companies that dislike the refining business because of historically low returns but whose deficit can produce an economic, social and political crisis. |
The subsidies may be big, but the situation in Iraq is such a mess. If there is a price increase, if they remove some of the subsidies, it will cause a lot of hardship. |
There is no reason to do anything other than a rollover. The market is functioning and oil is plentiful. |
You have an oil market that is quite tight in the products side, particularly in the U.S.. Then you have a hurricane which closed eight refineries. The market looks at the situation and realizes supplies are even tighter. Prices will only fall if demand declines. |