Against this background, speculative buying underpinned a rise in prices. |
An unprecedented amount of new fund money has been attracted to the LME by virtue of index buying (commodity indices) and structured products. |
Base and precious metals remain in a virtuous circle with each appearing to feed off the strength of the others. |
Correction? What correction? With the shorter-term players locking in profits and systematic CTA (Commodity Trade Adviser fund) selling met by trade and hedge fund buying, base metals have stabilized after a volatile 24 to 48 hours. |
Everything I've seen this week points to a tightening market. Stocks are falling and canceled warrants are rising, indicating good demand. |
Funds are still keen, with the end of the month likely to bring even more money to commodities due to the good performance they've had during January. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy at the moment. |
Furthermore, with the market in deficit for the past three consecutive years, industry stocks are below critically low levels and the stocks-consumption ratio is forecast to remain below four weeks over the next three years and should continue to underpin strong copper prices. |
However, the market may be prone to wide trading ranges and choppy price movements while current consolidation continues, with more liquidation possible in the absence of upside momentum. |
If the fund buying is strong enough, it could lift prices to that target ($600) a lot quicker than we think. |
It is difficult to know what is happening -- it may be profit-taking, but it is certainly not a trend reversal. |
Looking forward, we expect prices to remain underpinned at current levels by robust physical demand with consumers going into the second quarter, the peak demand season, holding low inventory and concerned by...supply. |
Speculators and investors have the precious metals market in their tight grip and are just forcing prices higher. |
The ( zinc ) concentrate market is already so tight, this is the last thing the market needs. |
The main story is still fund money. Stocks are low. |
The market remains fund-driven. No one wants to go short while consumers buy in dips and producers are reluctant to sell, hoping for yet higher prices. |